Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 20.623294 21.754019 22.939446 24.279381 25.757392 27.344285 29.185453
2026-02-01 18.810624 20.334450 22.001416 23.975271 26.268726 28.875007 32.098519
2026-02-08 17.527517 19.217774 21.113491 23.422105 26.192965 29.459606 33.677989
2026-02-15 16.783602 18.631737 20.750731 23.397484 26.670923 30.667199 36.051254
2026-02-22 16.343726 18.345625 20.687018 23.680497 27.488611 32.296867 39.054371
2026-03-01 15.670746 17.733017 20.180536 23.364621 27.503039 32.867125 40.665294
2026-03-08 14.837620 16.881764 19.331857 22.557435 26.812568 32.430757 40.799930
2026-03-15 14.369213 16.453334 18.980585 22.355171 26.887295 33.007930 42.407420
2026-03-22 14.210678 16.396743 19.085124 22.737494 27.752839 34.722284 45.856621
2026-03-29 13.971443 16.224824 19.029149 22.895942 28.309364 36.025179 48.804852
2026-04-05 13.793981 16.121058 19.051554 23.153021 29.009346 37.579473 52.332492
2026-04-12 13.483911 15.833619 18.818931 23.044490 29.169831 38.319720 54.564196
2026-04-19 13.082924 15.433744 18.446383 22.758193 29.103205 38.779993 56.516539
2026-04-26 12.688385 15.030746 18.056139 22.430312 28.957037 39.106413 58.286660
2026-05-03 12.267334 14.577614 17.579281 21.952755 28.548340 38.961058 59.122095
2026-05-10 12.035070 14.366770 17.422451 21.925215 28.823639 39.964204 62.351944
2026-05-17 11.917034 14.302881 17.461786 22.180422 29.549859 41.791050 67.591483
2026-05-24 11.622956 13.992238 17.147394 21.896966 29.396979 42.061385 69.527731
2026-05-31 11.195811 13.490833 16.552657 21.172972 28.494444 40.922449 68.126935
2026-06-07 10.968132 13.255571 16.324589 20.991160 28.467651 41.371581 70.470941
2026-06-14 10.922223 13.266482 16.442213 21.334638 29.324066 43.524219 77.329390
2026-06-21 10.814946 13.189061 16.430271 21.476851 29.848286 45.097908 83.151489
2026-06-28 10.739550 13.153048 16.475340 21.707446 30.535777 47.061473 90.589730